National bureau of economic research recession dating john alexander dating

The choice of March 1991 as the trough date was based primarily on the fact that various averages of the monthly indicators reached clear troughs in that month. It determined that the most recent trough occurred in the first quarter of 1991.

The NBER also maintains a quarterly chronology of the U. Committee members are: William Branson, Princeton University; Martin Feldstein, NBER President; Benjamin Friedman, Harvard University; Robert Gordon, Northwestern University; Robert Hall, chairman, of Stanford University; Geoffrey Moore, Columbia University; and Victor Zarnowitz, University of Chicago.

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CAMBRIDGE, July 08 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday in Cambridge and identified November 1982 as the trough of the recession that had begun in the United States in July 1981.

For example, real personal income and real manufacturing and trade sales both bottomed in October.

Industrial production and employee hours worked at nonfarm establishments both reached their low point in November.

For example, approximately five-sixths of all manufacturing, mining and utility industries now report higher production levels than they were experiencing six months ago, and three fourths of all nonfarm industries report higher employment levels than six months ago.

The selection of November as the trough month reflected the central tendency of the turning points in a number of individual series.

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